An integrated financial & economic atlas · FY2024–2026 data

Oklahoma
Inc.

The Sooner State read like a company — a profit-and-loss statement, a balance sheet, and the land, oil, people and politics behind every number.

$34.1B
net position
$213.5B
economy (GDP)
4.05M
residents
77
counties
39
tribal nations
Scroll to open the books
01 — The one-screen briefing

Oklahoma at a glance

Two sets of books. The government — a low-debt, oil-levered public enterprise with a growing net worth. And the economy — a $213-billion machine still pumping crude, but quietly rebuilt on aerospace, wind, and tribal enterprise.

$34.1B
Govt net position (FY24)
▲ 5.9% year over year
$213.5B
State GDP (2025)
▲ 1.5% real growth
$12.08B
FY26 appropriated budget
▼ 11.8% vs FY00 (real, per-capita)
$2.31B
Total state savings
Rainy-day cushion
23%
Economy from oil & gas
$60.3B in activity
#3
US wind-power producer
Behind only TX, IA
50th
Public-education ranking
49th in per-pupil spend
$23.4B
Tribal-nation output
~8% of state GDP
+23,370
Net in-migration (2023)
~88 people/day
3.8%
Unemployment (2025)
Below US 4.3%
−43.7%
Household savings, 2019-23
2nd-worst in US
#4
Incarceration rate (US)
905/100k all-forms

Sources: State of Oklahoma ACFR FY2024 (OMES); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Oklahoma Policy Institute; OERB; United for Oklahoma; BLS; Census; HUD. Government figures are for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024 — the most recent audited report. Full source list at the end.

The fair test

Oklahoma vs. the United States

Every row below is a strict 1:1: the same metric, the same year, the same source. Oklahoma against the U.S. average. The only thing that changes is the geography — so the gap is the story.

2026-06-06T15:36:32.633874 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.10.8, https://matplotlib.org/ Unemployment (U-3) Underemployment (U-6) Per-capita income Uninsured rate Life expectancy Incarceration /100k -12% -10% -13% +44% -7% +36% Oklahoma vs. U.S. — % difference from national average Green = better for Oklahomans, red = worse. OK beats the US on jobs; trails on income, coverage, health, incarceration.
MetricOklahomaU.S.GapVerdictSame source · year
Unemployment (U-3)3.8%4.3%−0.5 ptBetterBLS · 2025
Underemployment (U-6)7.2%8.0%−0.8 ptBetterBLS · 2025
Per-capita personal income$62,661$72,425−13.5%BelowBEA · 2024
Uninsured rate11.5%8.0%+3.5 ptWorseCensus · 2024
Life expectancy72.8 yrs78.4 yrs−5.6 yrsWorseCDC · 2023
Incarceration (all forms, per 100k)905664+36%WorsePrison Policy Initiative · 2024
PatternOklahoma beats the U.S. on jobs — and trails it on income, health, coverage and incarceration.

Where a clean same-year, same-source U.S. figure could not be confirmed (e.g. median household income, food insecurity), the metric is shown elsewhere as Oklahoma-only rather than forced into an unfair comparison. "Gap" is OK minus U.S. (points) or percent difference. Verdict reflects whether the gap is good or bad for residents.

02 — The income statement

The State's profit & loss

Government-wide statement of activities, all funds, fiscal year ended June 30, 2024. The State took in $33.3 billion and spent $31.5 billion — booking a $1.89 billion surplus that lifted its net worth.

Where the money goes — the fiscal skyline

Each tower is a function of government, extruded to the dollars it consumed in FY2024. Health care dwarfs the rest.
2026-06-06T15:36:29.244956 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.10.8, https://matplotlib.org/ Health services Education Social services Govt administration Transportation Public safety Higher education Resources & other $11.10B $5.75B $3.89B $3.53B $1.45B $1.23B $1.00B $3.50B Where each state dollar goes — FY2024 ($B) Source: Oklahoma ACFR FY2024, Statement of Activities. One dollar in three goes to health care.
2026-06-06T15:36:29.678727 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.10.8, https://matplotlib.org/ Federal grants & contributions Charges for services Individual income tax Sales tax Gross production (oil & gas) Motor-vehicle tax Corporate income tax Fuel, other & earnings $14.49B $5.35B $4.52B $3.78B $1.07B $1.02B $0.65B $2.41B Where the money comes from — FY2024 ($B) Source: Oklahoma ACFR FY2024. Federal aid and taxes carry the state; oil & gas is the swing line.
Health & social Education Administration & safety Infrastructure & resources Other / business-type

Health Services alone ($11.1B) is larger than education, social services and government administration would be if you removed any one of them. Source: ACFR FY2024, Statement of Activities.

Revenues · FY2024

$33.29 billion in

Federal grants and taxes do most of the lifting; oil & gas is a swing line.
Operating grants & contributions (mostly federal)$14.49B
Charges for services$5.35B
Individual income tax$4.52B
Sales tax$3.78B
Gross production (oil & gas)$1.07B
Motor-vehicle tax$1.02B
Corporate income tax$0.65B
Fuel, other taxes & earnings$2.41B
Total revenues$33.29B
Expenses · FY2024

$31.45 billion out

One dollar in three goes to health care.
Health services$11.10B
Education — general$5.75B
Social services$3.89B
Government administration$3.53B
Transportation$1.45B
Public safety & defense$1.23B
Higher-education payments$1.00B
Resources, justice, business-type & other$3.50B
Total expenses$31.45B
Bottom line: a $1.89 billion increase in net position (+5.9%). Tax revenue actually fell overall — gross-production (oil & gas) tax dropped $500M as prices cooled — but income and sales taxes and federal grants more than covered it. Oklahoma's surplus rides on Washington and on the wellhead.

Figures rounded from the audited Statement of Activities, ACFR FY2024 (in $ thousands). "Other" includes natural resources, legal & judiciary, regulatory services, interest on debt, museums, and the four business-type activities (unemployment insurance, group insurance, lottery, local-government loans).

03 — The balance sheet

What Oklahoma owns & owes

Government-wide statement of net position, June 30, 2024. Against $46.3B of assets sit just $12.9B of liabilities — leaving a $34.1B net position. By state standards, this is a fortress balance sheet.

2026-06-06T15:36:32.012929 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.10.8, https://matplotlib.org/ ASSETS LIABILITIES Current $22.9B Capital $15.2B Other $8.2B Current $8.1B Noncurrent $4.8B Total $46.3B T o t a l   3 3 . 4 B 1 2 . 9 3 B N e t p o s i t i o n What Oklahoma owns vs. owes — June 30, 2024 ($B) Source: Oklahoma ACFR FY2024, Statement of Net Position. A fortress balance sheet by state standards.
Assets$ billions
Current assets (cash, receivables, investments)$22.85
Capital assets (roads, buildings, land)$15.20
Other long-term assets$8.24
Total assets$46.29
Liabilities
Other (current) liabilities$8.08
Noncurrent liabilities (debt, pensions)$4.85
Total liabilities$12.93
Net position$34.08

The net worth splits three ways: $13.4B tied up in capital assets the State can't sell (the roads it drives on), $9.2B legally restricted to specific uses, and $11.4B genuinely unrestricted — real flexibility. Add a $1.4B Constitutional "Rainy Day" reserve and a $18.4B combined governmental fund balance, and the picture is a state that has been saving aggressively on a tide of federal pandemic money.

Composition of net position
Capital assets
$13.4B
Restricted
$9.2B
Unrestricted
$11.4B

Share of $34.1B total net position. Source: ACFR FY2024, Statement of Net Position.

The catch: Oklahoma's low debt is real, but its surplus has been propped up for four years by federal funds. With income-tax cuts now on a path toward zero and grocery sales tax already gone (~$418M/yr), the revenue side of this balance sheet is being deliberately shrunk just as federal support fades.
04 — The operating budget

The $12.08 billion that lawmakers actually steer

The audited P&L counts every federal dollar and fee. The appropriated budget is the slice legislators control — and for FY2026 it is smaller, in real per-capita terms, than it was a quarter-century ago.

2026-06-06T15:36:30.702578 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.10.8, https://matplotlib.org/ Education Health & social services Public safety Transportation All other agencies $5.76B $2.32B $1.40B $0.80B $1.80B FY2026 appropriated budget by area ($B) Source: Oklahoma Policy Institute, FY2026 Budget Highlights. Education + health = two-thirds.
FY2026 appropriations by area
Education and health swallow two-thirds before anything else is funded.
Education
$5.76B
Health & social
$2.32B
Public safety
~$1.4B
Transportation
~$0.8B
Everything else
~$1.8B

Education = 48% of appropriations; Health & Social Services = 19%. Bars scaled to the $5.76B education line. Source: Oklahoma Policy Institute, FY2026 Budget Highlights; HB 2766.

11.8%

smaller than the FY2000 budget once you adjust for inflation and population growth. Oklahoma has roughly one-fifth less real revenue per person to run shared services than it did 25 years ago — even as the state added people.

Rainy Day Fund · $1.33B Revenue Stabilization · $425M Rate Preservation · $561M Total savings · $2.31B
The tax-cut machine. In 2025 lawmakers cut the income tax 0.25 points, eliminated the bottom three brackets, and wrote in automatic triggers to drive the rate toward zero — eventually erasing what is today the State's single largest revenue source. A full year of these cuts is scored at roughly $340M; the grocery sales-tax repeal already costs ~$418M a year. Savings, not new revenue, is funding the gap.

Sources: Oklahoma Policy Institute FY2026 Budget Highlights; HB 2764; HB 2766; Oklahoma Tax Commission.

05 — The real economy

Oklahoma Inc.: a $213.5 billion machine

Step outside the capitol and the bigger income statement is the whole economy. State GDP hit $213.5 billion in 2025, up 1.5% — and its engine room has quietly diversified far beyond the derrick.

2026-06-06T15:36:30.217150 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.10.8, https://matplotlib.org/ Oil & gas (total footprint) Aerospace & defense Government Real estate Tribal nations Professional & business Agriculture $60.30B $44.00B $32.80B $23.50B $23.40B $22.80B $6.10B Economic engines — output / footprint ($B) Mixed value-added and total-activity estimates (not additive). Sources: BEA; OERB; OK Commerce; United for Oklahoma; USDA.

The engines of the economy

Headline output and footprint by sector. Oil & gas still leads, but aerospace and tribal enterprise now rival it.
Oil & gas (total footprint)
$60.3B
Aerospace & defense
$44.0B
Government
$32.8B
Tribal nations
$23.4B
Real estate
$23.5B
Professional & business svcs
$22.8B
Agriculture
$6.1B

Bars scaled to the oil & gas footprint. Note: figures mix BEA value-added (government, real estate, professional services) with total-activity / impact estimates (oil & gas, aerospace, tribal), so they overlap and are not additive — they show relative heft, not a clean GDP decomposition. Sources: BEA; OERB (oil & gas, FY24); Oklahoma Dept. of Commerce / advancedmanufacturing.org (aerospace); United for Oklahoma (tribal); USDA (agriculture).

#6
US crude-oil producer
Major natural-gas state
#3
US wind-power producer
~10× its 2010 output
206k
Aerospace & defense jobs
Anchored by Tinker AFB
Top 5
US wheat & cattle
$6.1B farm economy
$7.8B
Goods exports (2024)
▲ 24.9% year over year
$62,661
Per-capita income
40th in the US

Oklahoma's quiet story is energy convergence: the same windy plains that made it the nation's #6 oil state now make it #3 in wind. Almost all of its electricity-generation growth since 2010 has been wind. Meanwhile Tinker Air Force Base — the country's largest air-logistics depot — seeded an aerospace cluster now worth $44B and 206,000 jobs, the state's fastest-growing industry and its hedge against the next oil bust.

But concentration cuts both ways. Oil & gas is still ~23% of all economic activity and the swing factor in state tax receipts. When crude rolls over, gross-production tax can fall half a billion dollars in a single year — exactly what happened in FY2024. Oklahoma's prosperity is real, but it is levered to a commodity price it does not control.

06 — The Urban3 lens

Value per acre

The signature move of urban economist Joe Minicozzi (Urban3) is to stop measuring land by what it looks like and measure it by the value packed onto each acre. Shade Oklahoma's 77 counties that way and a different state appears: nearly all the value lives in two counties.

Property value per acre, by county

The true Urban3 measure, mapped flat: every one of the 77 counties shaded by its assessed property value per acre — its tax base divided by its land. One color, dark to bright. The two metros blaze; rural counties barely register.
Oklahoma CityTulsaProperty value per acre · 2024 assessed tax base$57 / acre (rural)$24,831 / acre (Oklahoma County)

All 77 counties with accurate boundaries; major lakes shown approximately. Value = 2024 gross assessed valuation (Oklahoma Tax Commission, Ad Valorem Division) ÷ county land area. Range: $57/acre (Cimarron, far panhandle) to $24,831/acre (Oklahoma County) — a 436× spread. Oklahoma and Tulsa counties alone hold ~38% of the entire state property tax base on ~3% of its land.

See all 77 counties (value per acre)
CountyAssessed valueValue / acre
Oklahoma$10.92B$24,831
Tulsa$8.70B$23,175
Cleveland$3.33B$9,508
Canadian$2.38B$4,170
Mayes$1.26B$2,967
Rogers$1.30B$2,848
Payne$1.15B$2,579
Wagoner$0.94B$2,511
Washington$0.51B$1,916
McClain$0.56B$1,583
Garfield$1.00B$1,518
Comanche$1.02B$1,517
Carter$0.77B$1,486
Grady$0.94B$1,370
Creek$0.81B$1,326
Muskogee$0.67B$1,298
Logan$0.61B$1,280
Delaware$0.62B$1,215
Pottawatomie$0.58B$1,155
Kay$0.66B$1,103
Lincoln$0.59B$975
Bryan$0.56B$969
Kingfisher$0.53B$932
Stephens$0.52B$926
Pontotoc$0.40B$888
Marshall$0.22B$809
Garvin$0.41B$800
Ottawa$0.23B$756
Okmulgee$0.29B$663
Custer$0.41B$660
Murray$0.17B$656
Pittsburg$0.53B$619
Cherokee$0.30B$616
Noble$0.28B$609
Sequoyah$0.27B$606
Seminole$0.24B$602
Coal$0.17B$537
Beckham$0.29B$515
Blaine$0.27B$459
Love$0.14B$436
Woodward$0.34B$433
McIntosh$0.19B$431
Johnston$0.17B$421
Jackson$0.21B$414
Hughes$0.21B$408
Adair$0.14B$381
Osage$0.55B$379
McCurtain$0.45B$378
Le Flore$0.36B$353
Caddo$0.28B$353
Grant$0.22B$346
Pawnee$0.12B$334
Dewey$0.20B$318
Major$0.19B$314
Woods$0.25B$310
Washita$0.19B$300
Texas$0.34B$261
Craig$0.12B$256
Nowata$0.09B$238
Okfuskee$0.09B$235
Atoka$0.14B$226
Alfalfa$0.13B$225
Haskell$0.08B$211
Ellis$0.16B$203
Choctaw$0.10B$197
Latimer$0.09B$189
Roger Mills$0.12B$171
Kiowa$0.10B$160
Beaver$0.18B$152
Jefferson$0.06B$120
Cotton$0.05B$113
Pushmataha$0.10B$113
Tillman$0.06B$110
Harper$0.07B$108
Greer$0.03B$83
Harmon$0.02B$73
Cimarron$0.07B$57

An acre is an acre — until you measure what it earns

Same footprint, wildly different output. Each tower is one acre of Oklahoma land, extruded by the economic value it generates per year. (Illustrative model of the Urban3 principle.)
Farmland / rangeland Suburban & big-box Active oil & gas pad Downtown core (OKC / Tulsa)

The pattern is the point: a single downtown block can out-earn hundreds of acres of farmland or sprawl, and a productive well can out-earn both — but only while it flows. Magnitudes are illustrative of Urban3's nationally-documented value-per-acre findings applied to Oklahoma land types, not parcel-level tax data.

Oklahoma is 68,595 square miles of mostly rural land — yet its value is collapsing into a few points. Population growth since 2020 has concentrated in the urban centers: Oklahoma County (806,199), Tulsa County (680,794) and fast-growing Cleveland and Canadian counties on the OKC fringe. The downtown cores the State barely taxes generate more economic value per acre than the vast working landscapes that define its image.

The Urban3 warning for Oklahoma is fiscal: sprawl is expensive. Every mile of new suburban road, pipe and wire is a liability the whole tax base must maintain, while the high-value downtown blocks that could pay for it are a tiny share of the map. A state cutting its income tax toward zero will lean ever harder on the productivity of those few bright towers.

07 — The deeper balance sheet

The assets that never hit the ledger

The audited balance sheet counts cash and concrete. The real Oklahoma balance sheet is its capital stock — what's under the ground, on the land, and in its people. Some of it is appreciating; some is being run down.

NATURAL
Appreciating & depleting
#6 US oil · top-tier gas · #3 US wind · top-5 wheat & cattle · vast wind corridor & rangeland
TRIBAL
Fast-appreciating
39 nations · $23.4B output (~8% of GDP) · 139,860 jobs supported · +$4.9B in four years
HUMAN
Under-maintained
4.05M people · +80,064 since 2020 · but 50th in education & 47th in health outcomes
Tribal nations — the under-counted asset

$23.4 billion

Oklahoma's 39 tribal nations are an economic pillar in their own right — and a uniquely Oklahoma line item.
Total economic output (2023)$23.4B
Share of state GDP~8%
Jobs supported statewide139,860
Wages & benefits$7.8B
Health services to Oklahomans$582M
Education funding$351M
Growth, FY2019→FY2023+$4.9B

Since McGirt v. Oklahoma reaffirmed reservation boundaries across much of eastern Oklahoma, the tribal economy has become impossible to treat as a footnote. Casinos, health systems, manufacturing and compacts now move $23.4 billion a year and support nearly 140,000 jobs — many in rural counties where they are the largest employer and the de-facto safety net, spending more than half a billion dollars a year on health care alone. On the State's hidden balance sheet, this is the asset class growing fastest.

08 — People & politics

4.05 million Oklahomans, two islands of blue

The population is growing, urbanizing, and — at the ballot box — almost uniformly red. In 2024 Donald Trump carried all 77 counties by a 34-point margin. The only contested ground is the two big-city cores.

2024 presidential vote — all 77 counties red
Trump +40 or more Trump +20–40 Urban core (closest margins)

Boundary is accurately projected (panhandle, 100th-meridian west edge, Red River south); the red mosaic is a texture, not literal county lines. Trump carried all 77 counties. Oklahoma County decided by <2 pts; Tulsa County by ~15 (Harris 41.3% — the Democrats' best there since 1964). Markers at true OKC & Tulsa coordinates. Source: AP / state results, 2024.

Oklahoma is one of the reddest states in America, yet 2024 also showed the urban–rural split widening: as rural counties shifted further right, the OKC and Tulsa cores moved the other way. The same two dots that dominate the value-per-acre map are the only places the state's politics are genuinely competitive.

White
72.9%
Hispanic / Latino
12.9%
American Indian
9.5%

Race/ethnicity shares overlap (Census categories). American Indian share is among the highest of any state.

Where Oklahomans live — the five biggest counties
Oklahoma Co.
806,199
Tulsa Co.
680,794
Cleveland Co.
300,047
Canadian Co.
168,985
Comanche Co.
121,825

Three of the top five ring Oklahoma City. The remaining 72 counties share the rest. Median household income statewide: $61,364 — about 18% below the U.S. Source: Census / world population review.

Migration — the brain gain

88 people move to Oklahoma every day

In 2023, 107,679 people moved in and 84,309 moved out — a net gain of +23,370, and roughly 88 new arrivals a day. After decades of "brain drain," Oklahoma is now a net importer of people, especially young ones: millennial in-migration ran 53% above out-migration, and OKC ranked 8th nationally for millennial moves.

Net migrants gained, by origin (2022 to 2023)
From California
+3,960
From Texas
+2,600
From Arizona
+1,120

Net domestic in-migration by origin state. Oklahoma also ranks 12th for growth in families with children. Sources: IRS/Census migration; OCPA; KC Fed.

09 — Work & enterprise

Low joblessness, high hustle

By the headline numbers, Oklahomans are working and starting businesses at a brisk clip. The state added 140,000 jobs in five years and now has the highest rate of new business ownership in at least two decades.

3.8%
Unemployment (U-3, 2025)
Below US 4.3%
7.2%
Underemployment (U-6)
vs US 8.0%
140k
Jobs added 2019-24
Top-10 state
~1 in 5
Adults are new biz owners
Highest in 20+ yrs

The entrepreneurial surge is real: the share of working adults who are new business owners climbed from 12.8% a decade ago to nearly 19% — and Oklahoma County alone logged 14,955 new business applications in 2023, the most of any county in the state. In 2024, 75 company expansions or relocations were announced, carrying a potential $5.19 billion in investment and 5,564 jobs.

The jobless picture, 2025
Unemployed residents (U-3)76,800
Marginally attached to labor force18,600
U-3 unemployment rate3.8%
U-6 underemployment rate7.2%
New-business-owner rate~19%

"Marginally attached" want work and looked in the past year but not the last 4 weeks. Source: BLS Southwest, 2025; GEM; U.S. Chamber.

10 — The household ledger

The kitchen-table balance sheet

The state runs a surplus; many of its households do not. Behind a low jobless rate sits thin savings, rising rents, real hunger, and a homelessness count moving the wrong way.

2026-06-06T15:36:31.199699 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.10.8, https://matplotlib.org/ Child poverty Food insecurity Poverty rate Uninsured rate 20.5% 15.4% 15.3% 11.5% Household pressure gauges (%) Sources: Census; USDA; America's Health Rankings. Household savings also fell 43.7% (2019–23), 2nd-worst in the US.
−43.7%

The drop in the average Oklahoma household's savings balance from 2019 to 2023 — the second-steepest decline in the nation. Incomes are below average too: per-capita income of $62,661 ranks 40th, and median household income sits ~18% under the U.S.

Pressure gauges
Poverty rate
15.3%
Child poverty
20.5%
Food insecurity
15.4%
Uninsured
11.5%

Food insecurity is the 5th–6th highest rate in the U.S. (2021–23 avg). Child poverty exceeds the U.S. average. Sources: Census; America's Health Rankings; USDA; Feeding America.

Housing squeeze
Rental homes short for lowest-income renters~85,000
Extremely-low-income renters severely cost-burdened70%+
OKC median rent, 2000 → 2018$483→$851

"Severely cost-burdened" = paying >50% of income on rent. Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition; OK Housing Needs Assessment 2024.

Homelessness — moving the wrong way
Oklahoma City point-in-time count, 20241,838
Change vs 2023+402 (~28%)
Chronically homeless (OKC)474 (+17%)
Statewide (HUD AHAR, 2024)~5,400 (+17%)

Point-in-time counts undercount; treat as a floor. Source: OKC PIT 2024; HUD Annual Homelessness Assessment Report.

The split screen: a state booking a surplus and a top-10 jobs record, where the median family's savings just fell harder than almost anywhere in America and 1 in 5 children lives in poverty. Growth at the top of the ledger is not reaching the kitchen table.
11 — Subsidies & incentives

What Oklahoma pays to keep the engine running

Behind the economy sits a web of public subsidy — cash to employers, credits to drillers and wind farms, and tax cuts that shrink the base. The flagship, the Quality Jobs Program, pays companies up to 5% of new payroll in cash.

Quality Jobs Program payouts ($M/yr)
2010
$50.0M
2016 (peak)
$84.5M
2018
$47.0M

A 2021 analysis found 2011–18 payouts of $524.8M generated ~$4,025M in added state tax revenue — net positive on those terms. Manufacturing (36.8%) and oil & gas (27.1%) took over half the rebates. Source: OK Policy; Incentive Evaluation Commission.

The incentive stack runs deeper than Quality Jobs: a 21st Century version pays knowledge-economy firms up to 10% of payroll for a decade; oil & gas has drawn gross-production tax breaks; wind built out on production tax credits before they were curtailed. An Incentive Evaluation Commission now scores these against their cost.

Set against the revenue side, the picture sharpens: the grocery-tax repeal (~$418M/yr) and the income-tax cut path toward zero are themselves a giant, permanent subsidy — to taxpayers broadly — that shrinks the base funding schools and health. Oklahoma subsidizes both its industries and its tax-cutters, and is spending savings to do it.

The subsidy & foregone-revenue ledger (annual, approximate)
Quality Jobs family of programs (cash to employers)~$47–85M
Grocery sales-tax repeal (foregone revenue)~$418M
Income-tax cut, HB2764 (foregone, full-year FY27)~$340M
Direction of travelBase shrinking

Items are different in kind (direct cash vs foregone tax) and not strictly additive; shown together to size the public cost of "keeping the engine running." Sources: OK Policy; Oklahoma Tax Commission; HB2764.

12 — The liabilities side

The ledger Oklahoma is under-funding

A balance sheet isn't only what you own — it's what you owe your future. On the two line items that compound hardest over a generation, schools and health, Oklahoma sits near the bottom of the nation.

Education — national rank (50 = worst)
Overall public-education rank50th
Per-pupil spending49th
Per-pupil spend (amount)$11,311
Avg. teacher pay rank41st
Avg. teacher pay (amount)$62,055
Real per-pupil funding since 2008−16%

Each student now receives ~$717 less, in real terms, than in 2008. Sources: WalletHub; NAEP; Oklahoma Policy Institute.

Health — national rank (50 = worst)
Overall health & well-being47th
Health-care system rank49th
Uninsured rank48th
Uninsured rate11.5%
Life expectancy (yrs)72.8
Poverty rate15.3%
Child poverty rate20.5%

Bottom-five in nearly every America's Health Rankings measure. Life expectancy fell from 74.1 yrs in 2020. Sources: America's Health Rankings; Commonwealth Fund; Census; CDC.

The paradox in one breath: a state with a $34B net worth, $2.3B in savings and a balanced budget ranks 49th–50th in what it spends per child and per patient. The money exists; the allocation is a choice. Oklahoma's deepest liability isn't on the audited balance sheet — it's the human capital it is quietly letting depreciate while it cuts the taxes that would fund it.
13 — The overlooked line item

The cost nobody books: incarceration

Oklahoma locks up its people at a rate matched by almost nowhere on earth. It is a moral question and a fiscal one — every cell is a recurring expense and a person taken out of the workforce and the value-per-acre map.

#4
State-prison rate (US)
550 per 100,000
905
All-forms rate /100k
Higher than any democracy
Top 3
Women's incarceration
222 per 100,000
72.8
Life expectancy (yrs)
Down from 74.1 in 2020

For years Oklahoma held the title of the world's highest female incarceration rate; reforms have eased it off that peak, but the state still ranks in the U.S. top three. Counting prisons, jails, and detention together, Oklahoma incarcerates 905 of every 100,000 residents — more than any independent democracy on the planet.

This belongs on the balance sheet. Corrections is a billion-dollar-scale recurring cost (public safety & defense ran $1.23B in FY2024), and the human capital removed — disproportionately rural, poor, and from the same overlooked communities the schools and clinics underserve — never shows up as the foregone output it is. It is the negative space in the Urban3 map.

14 — The analyst's note

The verdict on Oklahoma Inc.

Strong where it counts on paper. Oklahoma runs a genuine surplus, carries little debt, holds $2.3B in reserves and sits on a $34B net position that grew almost 6% in a single year. As a credit, it is conservative and resilient. Few states could survive an oil bust as well.

Quietly diversifying. The caricature is a one-commodity state. The reality is energy convergence — #6 in oil and #3 in wind — plus a $44B aerospace cluster, a $23B tribal economy, $7.8B in exports, and net in-migration of 80,000 since 2020. The economic engine is broader and more modern than its politics suggest.

But structurally levered. Oil & gas is still ~23% of activity and the swing factor in the budget. A single year of soft prices erased half a billion dollars of production tax. The State's revenues rise and fall with a number set in global markets.

And deliberately shrinking its own revenue. Four years of federal money funded the savings; now lawmakers are cutting the income tax toward zero and have already repealed the grocery tax. The cushion is being spent down to subsidize structural revenue loss, just as federal support recedes.

Under-investing in its people. 50th in education, 47th in health, 49th in per-pupil spending — in a state that can afford better. The audited books look healthy precisely because the human-capital account is being underpaid.

Growth that skips the kitchen table. Low joblessness and a top-10 jobs record sit alongside the nation's 2nd-steepest fall in household savings, 1-in-5 child poverty, 5th-worst food insecurity, and a homelessness count climbing. The top of the ledger is rising faster than the bottom.

A justice cost off the books. Incarcerating more people per capita than any democracy is a recurring expense and a permanent withdrawal of human capital — concentrated in the very communities the state already underserves.

The one-line rating: a cash-rich, asset-heavy enterprise with a fortress balance sheet, a diversifying top line, and a board that is cutting prices into a commodity downturn while deferring maintenance on its most important long-term asset — its people.